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Soochow securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December. According to the soochow securities Research Report, the CPI of the United States rebounded to +2.75% in November as scheduled, and the CPI that did not exceed expectations cleared the last obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. In the short term, the combination of low base and high viscosity means that CPI is expected to continue to rebound to +2.8% in December. In the medium term, Trump is expected to drive out illegal immigrants on the first day after taking office, which will aggravate the risk of stagflation in the labor market. However, the intensification of wage inflation stickiness may be concealed by the downward movement of non-agricultural centers in the same period, the expectation of increasing oil prices and the high base in the first half of 2025. The market's concern about "stagnation" may provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates smoothly in the first half of 2025. However, in the second half of 2025, the cumulative interest rate cuts will give support to the economy, the persistence of inflation stickiness and the landing of Trump's tax reduction policy will force the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December, 25bps in March and June next year, and stop cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. The end point of the policy interest rate in 2025 is [3.75,4.0]%.CITIC Jiantou: With the increase of policy stimulus, the pro-cyclical catering chain is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the expected improvement. According to CITIC Jiantou Research Report, since September, heavy meetings have continuously released a clear policy signal to strive to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year, and policies such as lowering the standard, reducing interest rates, lowering the mortgage interest rate, supporting local governments to resolve government affairs risks, issuing special government bonds to supplement core Tier 1 capital, using various tools to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and increasing support and guarantee for key groups have been released one after another. Focusing on boosting consumption and expanding effective domestic demand, the food and beverage industry is expected to usher in an inflection point, and its performance and valuation are expected to continue to improve. The liquor sector is expected to rebound with the boost of the domestic economy and the activation of household consumption, and the business scene and mass consumption boom will return to the consumption upgrading channel, and the profitability of leading liquor companies is expected to accelerate the repair. At present, the overall valuation of the liquor sector is still at a low level, and the long-term investment value is prominent. With the increase of policy stimulus, the pro-cyclical catering chain is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the expected improvement. Continue to be optimistic: 1) The leisure snacks and beverage industries maintain a high degree of prosperity, and new channels bring important incremental opportunities to companies in the industry; 2) Combined with the catering channels that are recovering continuously, it is suggested to pay attention to condiments, beer and catering chain labels with innovative products or reform expectations. At the same time, the current market price of molasses has further dropped from the previous month, which is of great help to yeast enterprises to improve their profit elasticity. 3) The inflection point of the raw milk cycle is approaching, the gift scene is expected to be repaired, and the dairy products continue to upgrade their structure, with high dividends and outstanding cost performance.In the first 11 months of GEM, the scale of raising funds by issuing 34 new shares dropped significantly year-on-year. Statistics show that from January to November, 2024, there were 34 new shares listed on GEM, with a total amount of raised funds of about 20.174 billion yuan. The number of issues and the scale of raising funds decreased by about 67% and 83% respectively year-on-year, and the number of listed new shares declined for three consecutive years. Among them, Nova Nebula and Yilian Technology have raised a total of more than 1 billion yuan, which is on the top. The share prices of the first-time shares of GEM all rose on the first day of listing, among which Changlian Technology and Shangda Shares rose more than 1000% on the first day of listing. In addition, there are 17 new shares listed income increased by more than 200%. In terms of underwriters, in the first November of 2024, the number of main underwriting projects of CITIC Jiantou, Guotai Junan and CICC was in the top three. Judging from the scale of fundraising, the total number of projects underwritten by Minsheng Securities and CITIC Jiantou exceeds 2.5 billion yuan, and the project scale of China Merchants Securities, Huatai United Securities and Guotai Junan exceeds 1.5 billion yuan. (Xinhua Finance)

Japanese and Korean stock markets opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 index down 0.56% at 39,624.05. South Korea's KOSPI index opened down 0.3% to 2,473.75 points.CITIC Securities: Relevant central state-owned enterprises engaged in business and equity cooperation with Huawei are expected to enjoy Huawei's empowerment. CITIC Securities pointed out that at the moment when the four sectors of intelligent selection are gathering together and the HI model is fully expanded, we believe that the investment core of Huawei's OEM is "change and invariance", that is, business model and partner iteration, but the top-level design of "not building cars, helping car companies build good cars" and the commercial appeal of maximizing sales and profits are not avoided. In addition, in the stage of deep cooperation with Huawei, the organizational structure and corporate governance of partners have been greatly improved. Similarly, we believe that relevant central state-owned enterprises engaged in business and equity cooperation with Huawei are expected to enjoy Huawei's empowerment, and Huawei will help the reform of state-owned enterprises.New Zealand wants to persuade the United States not to impose tariffs after Trump takes office. New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis said that after US President-elect Donald Trump takes office, New Zealand should be exempted from imposing comprehensive tariffs, and asked officials to be sensible to the United States. "Our initial position was please don't do this," Willis said in an interview in Wellington. "We let diplomats show the best of New Zealand."

The market demand for large-size OLEDs has significantly improved, and the industrial chain has made great efforts to break through bottlenecks such as materials. According to the Securities Daily, on December 12th, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. officially launched the new MatePad Pro, which uses a 13.2-inch large-size flexible OLED screen. "In recent years, the application scenarios of OLED screens have become more and more extensive, especially the application of large-size OLED screens has shown a rapid growth trend, which will drive the relevant needs of the industrial chain." Ding Bingzhong, a partner of Shanghai Jimao Asset Management Co., Ltd., said in an interview. In the industry's view, the shipments of large-size OLED panels are rising, mainly due to the growing demand for artificial intelligence, games and high-end laptops. The continuous expansion of large-size OLED applications will also drive the demand for OLED materials to increase. "It should be noted that at present, China's OLED materials have not been fully localized, especially the localization rate of terminal materials is still relatively low." Ding Bingzhong said.Korean media: South Korean President Yin Xiyue tried to appoint a new defense minister. The East Asia Daily did not explain that the source reported that South Korean President Yin Xiyue tried to appoint a new defense minister, which indicated that Yin Xiyue might resume his job, although he said last week that he would let the ruling party decide how to stabilize future state affairs and his term of office. After making a public speech on Thursday, Yin Xiyue approved the 42 agendas adopted at this week's cabinet meeting. This shows that Yin Xiyue may exercise the presidential power immediately after he hinted in his speech that he had no intention of stepping down.Bank of Japan: The index of small non-manufacturers rose for the second consecutive quarter, reaching the highest level since August 1991.